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Establishment of monitoring and early warning mechanisms to promote the sustained and healthy development of the wind power industry
Original title: 国家能源局关于建立监测预警机制促进风电产业持续健康发展的通知 国能新能[2016]196号
Links: Original CN (link).
See levels of wind power curtailment by province over Q1&2 2016 here.
See the monitoring result for 2017 here.
See the provincial allocation of wind power development quota for 2016 here.
National Energy Administration, Dept. for new and renewable energy [2016] No. 196
National Energy Administration
Issuance of "Establishment of monitoring and early warning mechanisms to promote the sustained and healthy development of the wind power industry"
Provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) Development and Reform Commission (Energy Administration), agencies, State Grid Corporation, China Southern Power Grid Corporation, Inner Mongolia electric power company, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, State Power Investment, Shenhua, Three Gorges, China Resources, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Guangdong Nuclear, CECEP, Hydro China, Electric Power Planning Design General Institute, Wind Energy Association, National Renewable Energy Center：
In order to guide rational investment in wind power enterprises, promote the sustained and healthy development of the wind power industry, the NEA established a wind power investment monitoring and early warning mechanism, notice is hereby given of the following：
1. The wind power investment monitoring and early warning mechanism index system is divided into policy indicators, resources and operational indicators, and economic indicators。The final risk warning results are determined by the weighted average of the three types of indicators。Monitoring warning results from high to low are red, orange and green. The warning is applicable to the year following the publication of the monitoring result。The various evaluation criteria, indicators and weights are included in Annex 1。
2. Two policy indicators, including a warning indicator on the realization wind power development plans and a warning indicator on the policy environment。The warning indicator on the realization of wind power development plans primarily considers the volume of project approvals as a percentage of the annual wind power development quota for the province or region；The warning indicator for the policy environment is primarily based on a survey amongst a sample of wind power developers, which are asked to evaluate the local policy environment. The evaluation includes whether there is unlawful trading in wind or thermal power generation permits, whether unlawful resource utilization or other fees are charged, whether enterprises are pressured to carry out donations, whether enterprises are pressured to use locally produced equipment, whether there is unlawful reselling of project preparation work, etcetera。
3. Three resources and operational indicators, being：Proportion of relatively inflexible power generation capacity, including captive power plants, heat and power cogeneration units, etc.；Wind power curtailment, provincial level curtailment reported over last year；Annual productivity, annual average number of full load hours over the past three years。
4. Two economic indicators, being：Trading price deficit，percentage that the trading price realized in transactions over last year fell below the benchmark price；Share of loss-making business in sample, the number of local wind power businesses making a loss over last year as a percentage of the total number of firms in the sample。
5. For provinces where the wind power productivity (as full load hours) falls below the minimum guaranteed number of hours to be dispatched as set for that province/region, the monitoring result will automatically be a red warning。For provinces that had 20% or more curtailment in the previous year, the warning result will orange or above。
6. The wind power investment monitoring and early warning results will be released annually。In the event of relatively major changes in the electricity price and other key conditions, or when related key policies are issued or updated, an update of results will be published。
7. The wind power investment monitoring and early warning results are used to guide the investment in wind power development in various provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities)。A red warning result for provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) shows that wind power investment risk is relatively high. In such case, the National Energy Administration will not issue the province an annual wind power development quota for the year in which the warning result is published. Local approval of new wind power projects is suspended (including for projects already included in outstanding annual development quota), wind power developers are advised caution in decision-making in the construction of wind power projects, and grid companies are to halt new grid connection procedures。An orange warning result, shows wind power development carries a certain investment risks. In such case, the National Energy Administration will in principle not issue the province an annual development quota for the year in which the warning result is published。A green monitoring result indicates the situation is normal; local governments and industry may rationally promote the development of wind power investment in accordance with market conditions。
8. 2016 wind power investment monitoring and early warning results are hereby published (see Annex 2); these exclude offshore wind projects。
Notice is hereby given。
Annex：1. Wind power investment monitoring and early warning calculation method
2. 2016 wind power investment monitoring and early warning results
National Energy Administration
July 18, 2016
Annex1：
Wind power investment monitoring and early warning calculation method
X=Pc × 10% + Pe × 10% + Rnap × 10% + Rcur × 30% + Hu × 15% + Pd × 15% + Rl × 10%
1. Explanation of the various indicators
X：Composite index, indicates the seriousness of the early warning for wind power investment。Outcome is divided into three levels (0-1.0、1.0-1.5、1.5-2.0), corresponding to three warning levels of red, orange, and green。
Pc：Rate of completion of the annually planned development
Pe：Wind power development policy environment
Rnap：Proportion of relatively inflexible power generation capacity
Rcur：Wind power curtailment (% of all)
Hu：Annual productivity (full load hours)
Pd：Trading price deficit
Ri：Share of loss-making business in sample
2. Calculation of the various indicators
1 Policy indicators
Rate of completion of the annually planned development 'Pc'，weighted at 10%。
| Standard | >80% | 50%-80% | <50% |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Wind power development policy environment 'Pe'，weighted at 10%。
| Standard | Local policy environment does not substantially affect the development of wind power | Local policy environment seriously affects the development of wind power |
| Score | 2 | 0 |
2 Resources and operational indicators
Proportion of relatively inflexible power generation capacity 'Rnap'，weighted at 10%。
| Rnap index | <20% | 20%-40% | >40% |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Wind power curtailment 'Rcur'，weighted at 30%。
| “Three Norths” area 'Rcur' evaluation criteria | <10% | 10%-20% | >20% |
| Other areas 'Rcur' evaluation criteria | <5% | 5%-10% | >10% |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Annual productivity (full load hours) 'Hu', weighted at 15%。
| Class I wind resource area Hu | >2400 | 2200-2400 | <2200 |
| Class II wind resource area Hu | >2200 | 2000-2200 | <2000 |
| Class III wind resource area Hu | >2000 | 1800-2000 | <1800 |
| Class IV wind resource area Hu | >1800 | 1500-1800 | <1500 |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
3 Economic indicators
Trading price deficit 'Pd'，weighted at 15%。
| Standard | <5% | 5%-20% | >20% |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Share of loss-making business in sample 'Ri'，weighted at 10%。
| Standard | <10% | 10%-30% | >30% |
| Score | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Annex2
2016 wind power investment monitoring and early warning results
| Area | Monitoring result |
| Beijing | Green |
| Tianjin | Green |
| Southern Hebei power grid | Green |
| Hebei Northern grid | Orange |
| Shanxi | Green |
| Inner Mongolia (East) | Orange |
| Inner Mongolia (West) | Orange |
| Liaoning | Green |
| Jilin | Red |
| Heilongjiang | Red |
| Shanghai | Green |
| Jiangsu | Green |
| Zhejiang | Green |
| Anhui | Green |
| Fujian | Green |
| Jiangxi | Green |
| Shandong | Green |
| Henan | Green |
| Hubei | Green |
| Hunan | Green |
| Guangdong | Green |
| Guangxi | Green |
| Hainan | Green |
| Chongqing | Green |
| Sichuan | Green |
| Guizhou | Green |
| Yunnan | Green |
| Tibet | Green |
| Shaanxi | Green |
| Gansu | Red |
| Qinghai | Green |
| Ningxia | Red |
| Xinjiang (including XPCC) | Red |
[Map created on dituhui.com (link)]
