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Rebound of power consumption growth signals economy is stabilizing

Published on: January 15, 2014

解读人:厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心主任 林伯强
采访人:本报记者 林丽鹂
如果经济形势好,那么用电量增速会比GDP增速更快;如果经济形势不好,那么用电量增速会比GDP增速更低。2013年全社会用电量7.5%的增速和GDP的增速基本是1∶1的关系,是比较正常的比例关系。这说明经济企稳的态势已经确定。
从工业方面来看,用电量数据好,说明工业发展形势好。当前我国工业用电量占全社会用电量的70%左右,特别是重工业用电量占比大。工业对经济形势最敏感,2012年第二产业用电量的增速只有3.9%,2013年第二产业用电量的增速则回升到7.0%。第二产业用电量的回升是宏观经济企稳的最有力注脚。
从服务业方面来看,第三产业用电量受经济形势的影响比较小,这几年第三产业用电量的增速一直都不错。近几年第三产业用电量增速明显加快,不仅快于第一和第二产业,并且占比也在不断上升,表明我国用电结构出现积极变化,也可以从中透视我国经济的转型升级。虽然第二产业用电量在全社会用电量中占比较大的情况短期很难改变,但第三产业用电量上升的态势仍将持续。

 
Original title: 用电量回升确认经济企稳
Links: Original CN (url).

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